After 11 events spread across Asia, Australasia, Europe, and the United States, only four teams are in the running for the three-way, winner-takes-all, $2 million Grand Final race.
Dylan Fletcher’s Emirates Team Great Britain squad top the leaderboard on 85 points, with Peter Burling’s Kiwi Black Foils in second on 82 points, and Tom Slingsby’s Australian BONDS Flying Roos in third on 80 points. Meanwhile, last season’s overall winners – Diego Botin’s Spanish Los Gallos crew – sit in fourth on 76 points and are well within striking distance of stealing a spot in the Grand Final.
With conditions in Abu Dhabi expected to be on the lighter side the teams will race for the first time with the new 27.5-metre wingsail configuration – the latest element in a slew of performance upgrades introduced to the F50 catamarans this season, that includes new light airs T-foils and rudders. Quickly getting to grips with the new wing setup could well prove critical amongst the top four teams battling to make the Grand Final.
The expected light winds will also put a premium on good starting. With 12 boats on the startline and target race times now down to eight minutes there is virtually no chance of making a comeback if you fluff the start and round the first turning mark at the back of the pack.
Based on the scoring statistics for the season the British deserve their top spot in the rankings after consistently outperforming their rivals to chalk up 11 race wins and 29 top-three race finishes over the preceding 11 events. The New Zealanders are next best with 10 race wins and 24 top threes, followed by the Australians with nine race wins and 22 top threes. The Spanish have only scored five race wins, but have finished in the top three 18 times.
Picking a winner from the top four is nigh on impossible at this stage with each team having their own range of strengths and pretty few weaknesses.
Despite going into the event in third it’s still really hard to bet against Tom Slingsby, particularly given that he has won three out of the four SailGP Grand Finals since the league’s introduction. This season, though, the Aussies have won only one of the five final races that they have qualified for, leaving an uncharacteristic question mark over the team’s ability to deliver when it counts.
It’s also the first time Slingsby has faced the possibility of not making a SailGP Grand Final – a factor which must surely affect his strategy over this weekend’s six fleet races that will decide who wins the Abu Dhabi event and determine the top three overall for the season and the big money Grand Final.
“We’re probably 60% of the way there,” Slingsby commented in typically pragmatic style. “There’s still a fair chance we can be knocked out. If we have a good event, we should be fine – but we’ve got a bit more work to do than we’d hoped.”
If the Australians do hold their nerve and make it to the 10-minute Grand Final then nothing which has gone before will matter and no one would be surprised to see the Flying Roos clinch another season title.
Having successfully broken in a new flight controller this season in the form of Leo Takahashi, Burling’s Kiwi crew have won two of the six finals they qualified for over Season 5. The Black Foils made it to the final twice previously – in Seasons 3 and 4 – and are red-hot keen to go all the way with a win in Season 5. And with the Australians perhaps more distracted with the potential threat from the Spanish, Burling and Co. could present the strongest challenge to the British over the coming weekend of racing.
Burling is a fierce competitor whose skills have been honed at the Olympics and on the America’s Cup racecourse. Looking ahead to the prospect of light wind racing in Abu Dhabi he is grateful for the chance to catch up on training time during the week leading up to racing getting under way, and believes good starting will be key.
“We get a few extra days on the boat in Abu Dhabi,” he said. “I think we’ve had the least number of days training this season of all the teams. You’ve just got to get on with it and put your best foot forward.”
“It’s an incredibly tight bit of water – traditionally super tight racecourses in light air. If we get off the start line well and get to mark one in good shape, we can really sail smart races from there.”
With a three-out-of-seven win ratio in finals reached this season the British are – for what it is worth – the statistical favourites going into the Abu Dhabi event. If that means they are feeling added pressure it will probably serve as a motivation rather than a detriment to this tight-knit lineup that has benefitted massively from the effectiveness of the relationship between helmsman Fletcher and strategist Hannah Mills.
Both are ice-cold in the heat of battle and well used to dealing with winner-take-all scenarios from their days of Olympic campaigning. If victory in Season 6 were to be decided on which skipper wants it the most then the Brits would be a shoo-in. Having lost his place in the original British team after Season 1, Fletcher knows he has the potential to make a stunning return to the league if he can emerge from the fray in Abu Dhabi on top.
“It would be the cherry on top of an incredible season,” Fletcher commented. “It’s not just about the results or the prize money – it’s about proving yourself against the best sailors in the world in one-design racing. To win there would be hugely special, for the team and personally.”
And let’s not count out the Spanish. Despite only qualifying for four finals this season, the Season 4 champions won two of them back-to-back in San Francisco and New York. Effectively the wildcard of the Abu Dhabi event, Diego Botin’s crew will be focused on forcing themselves into the top three with a strong performance in the initial six fleet races. They will likely need one or more of the top three to falter to get there, but we have seen plenty of examples of that over previous seasons of SailGP.
“Our mathematical chances are quite low,” Botín conceded. “But in this sport, you can create your own chances. We’re exploring every way possible to maximise them. The light winds create more opportunities. The start is critical because the fleet is huge and the wind shadows make it hard to come back. The crazier it gets, the better for us.”
